Industry Trend Analysis - Single-Tablet Regimens To Improve HIV Treatment Adherence - NOV 2017

BMI View: S ingle-tablet regimens will be beneficial to help preve nt the spread of drug-resistant HIV, as adherence will increase. They offer an opportunity for drugmakers in the competitive HIV drug market, although Johnson & Johnson is likely to struggle against its more established competitors. Research and development into HIV vaccines is increasing with the global risk of drug-resistant strains of the virus and a successful HIV vaccine would pose a significant risk to all antiretroviral therapies .

There are currently 36.7mn people living with HIV worldwide. Whilst this number is expected to decrease over the next 10 years, disease resistance is becoming a worldwide threat with an increasing trend of resistance to HIV drugs. HIV drug resistance develops when people do not adhere to a prescribed treatment plan. Individuals with HIV drug resistance will start to fail therapy and may also transmit drug-resistant viruses to others. The complexity and high pill burden of some HIV treatment regimens can result in non-adherence, which is one of the major contributors to the development of HIV drug resistance. As a result, the larger players in the HIV market are developing once-daily and single-tablet treatments to increase the shelf life of current therapies, whilst also increasing adherence, hence reducing the chance of drug resistance. Johnson & Johnson is one such company, and has now gained an EC approval and submitted an NDA to the FDA.

EC Approves Symtuza

J&J's Prezista Sales To Decline
Forecast Annual Product Sales (USDmn)
e=estimate. Source: Bloomberg, BMI

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