Industry Trend Analysis - Risk Factors To Drive Non-Communicable Disease Medicine Demand - MAR 2017

BMI View: High levels of alcohol and tobacco consumption in Central and Eastern European markets will continue to define the disease burden profile, and consequentially drive drugmaker opportunities. Multinational pharmaceutical firms will experience high demand for medicines treating non-communicable diseases associated with these risk factors, in particular lung cancer, heart disease and stroke. In addition, preventative medicines such as statins and smoking cessation products are likely to experience an uptick in sales.

Drugmaker opportunities in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region will be driven by the population's underlying lifestyle choices and disease risk factor profile. While the frontier markets of Africa and Asia will present significant opportunities for infectious disease medicine sales, such as for HIV, opportunities will be found in the non-communicable disease segment in CEE. Here we look at the dominant risk factors that have led to the region's epidemiological profile and how this will shape the outlook for medicine sales by therapeutic area.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), most non-communicable diseases are the result of four behaviours: tobacco consumption, physical inactivity, alcohol consumption and unhealthy diet. These four behaviours lead to metabolic or physiological changes, such as elevated blood pressure, that are directly linked to causing diseases such as diabetes, cancers and cardiovascular diseases.

CEE Region Has The Highest Non-Communicable Disease Burden
Non-Communicable Disease DALYs per '000 persons (2016)
DALYs: Disability-Adjusted Life Years. Source: BMI ' s Disease Database

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