Industry Trend Analysis - Reform Bill Passing Does Not Alter Negative Healthcare View - DEC 2017

BMI View: Despite the passing of a fundamental building block of the proposed and urgently required reforms to Ukraine's healthcare system, we remain downbeat on the short-to-medium term outlook for the sector. The reform is reliant on the passing of additional bills and the roll-out of changes is likely to be delayed. Moreover, provisions within the bill will limit the benefits to patients and will continue the custom of informal payments.

Raising the prospect of progress towards fundamental healthcare reform, on October 19 2017 the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) passed the bill No. 6327, 'On State Financial Guarantees For The Provision Of Medical Services And Medication'. Of the 323 votes, 240 voted in favour, surpassing the required 226 votes for a majority (42 voted against the bill, while 23 abstained and 38 did not vote).

The bill outlines the transition away from the inefficient and dated Soviet Semashko model towards a two-tiered health insurance model, introducing state-guaranteed medical care through a National Health Service (NHS). The law is set to enter force as of January 1 2018 whereby the state will guarantee primary care. During 2018-2019, the program will be gradually expanded through pilot programs for secondary and tertiary care and from January 1 2020 the entire healthcare system will have transitioned towards the new model of healthcare financing through the NHS.

Forecast Unchanged Despite Bill Approval
Ukraine: Healthcare Spending Forecast
f = BMI forecast. Source: World Health Organization (WHO), BMI

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