Industry Trend Analysis - Poor Pharmaceutical Policy Will Maintain Regional Underperformance - AUG 2017

BMI View: The outlook for Greece ' s pharmaceutical market will remain negative over the long term, as increasingly restrictive legislations on drugmakers are favoured over much-needed and neglected structural reforms. Government policy will continue to undermine market access to new medicines , increase the financial burden on pharmaceutical firms and limit the required increase in prescription rationalisation.

Greece's pharmaceutical market will remain a highly unattractive market for the foreseeable future as the impact of the financial crisis continues to weigh heavily on both public and private healthcare expenditure. Based on newly obtained data from a number of Greek and European pharmaceutical agencies and industry associations, we have slightly revised our historical market data, have downgraded our top line market forecast and have altered our sub-sector forecasts.

We had previously calculated the Greek pharmaceutical market to be valued at EUR4.98bn (USD5.51bn) at retail prices in 2016; we now calculate that the market was worth EUR5.12bn (USD5.67bn). While our revised historical market size calculations have led to slight changes compared to previous data, the trend in growth rates remains broadly similar. We expect growth within the Greek pharmaceutical market to remain stagnant over the coming five-year forecast period, to EUR5.11bn (USD5.11bn) in 2021 while over our longer-term forecast period we anticipate the market to return to growth. By 2026, we forecast the pharmaceutical market to be valued at EUR5.46bn (USD5.46bn).

A Bleak Outlook For Drugmakers
Greece - Pharmaceutical Market Forecast (EURbn)
f = BMI forecast. Source: National Organization for Medicines (EOF), BMI

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