Industry Trend Analysis - Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Outlook For 2018: Latin America - FEB 2018
BMI View: The Latin American pharmaceutical and healthcare markets are set for robust growth in 2018 ; however , rising political and economic risks across the region will affect drugmaker opportunities. The failure of the TPP and the implementation of the new CPTPP will fail to bring about fundamental reform to the intellectual property environment, resulting in generic medicine outperformance. In addition, political flashpoints will pose downside risk for medicine sales growth by inhibiting the reform process and stalling economic growth.
Latin America will remain a key region for emerging market growth for multinational drugmakers. In 2017, the region's pharmaceutical market will grow by 11.2% year-on-year, from USD57.5bn to USD64.0bn. Over our five-year forecast period (2017-2021), the market will post a 7.0% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in US dollar terms to reach USD80.8bn. Despite this robust growth outlook, major political and economic events will shape drugmaker opportunities in the region and have the potential to create major headwinds for drugmakers, both in terms of the attractiveness of the operating environment and medicine demand.
We note that irrespective of these challenges, the region will retain its allure for revenue growth, with the markets of Mexico and Brazil among the key emerging growth markets globally for multinational pharmaceutical firms. Here we outline two major themes that we believe will define the outlook for the region's pharmaceutical market in 2018.
|Faith In Government At Rock Bottom|
|Latin America - Opinion Poll: % Of Respondents Who Believe Government Works For The Majority Of People|
|Source: Latinobarometro, BMI|