Industry Trend Analysis - New Data Points At Improved Medicine Sales Outlook - DEC 2017

BMI View: Croatia 's pharmaceutical market represents an increasingly attractive market as it recovers from price cuts in 2014, boosted by the continued economic recovery. The market will display trends common with neighbouring markets, notably increased generic substitution rhetoric, however increased demand for high-value drugs will partially offset this headwind and will boost sales growth over the long term.

The continued strength of Croatia's economic recovery, coupled with a shifting dynamic in medicine consumption, will create a brighter outlook for medicine sales in the country. Based on newly-available data from The Croatian Agency for Medicinal Products and Medical Devices (HALMED), we have revised our pharmaceutical expenditure forecasts.

We now calculate total medicine expenditure in 2016 to be valued at HRK8.12bn (USD1.19bn). The pharmaceutical market is forecast to expand to HRK10.24bn (USD1.43bn) by 2021 and to HRK12.43bn (USD1.74bn) by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.7% in local currency terms (3.6% in US dollar terms over our five year forecast period and 4.3% (3.9% in US dollar terms) over our 10-year forecast period. This places the market's growth well above both the mean (3.42%) and median (3.06%) five-year CAGR for EEA members.

Forecast Revision Points To More Positive Outlook
Croatia: Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
f = BMI forecast. Source: Agency for Medicinal Products and Medical Devices (HALMED), Association of the European Self-Medication Industry (AESGP), Croatian Institute for Health Insurance (HZZO), BMI

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