Industry Trend Analysis - Lack Of Policy Continuity Increases Drugmaker Challenges - NOV 2017


BMI View: Pharmaceutical manufacturers will continue to face significant challenges in Greece due to the government's aggressive fiscal austerity measures. A surprise announcement to impose a retroactive 25% levy on reimbursed medicines from the start of 201 7 is the most recent of a number of repressive measures. The long-term outlook for all sectors will be repressed by these pricing policies and sustained policy uncertainty.

Continued fiscal austerity measures imposed by the Syriza government will maintain the bleak outlook for growth opportunities within the Greece's pharmaceutical sector. The state medicine budget has stagnated since 2014, having fallen by over 60% since 2009. In order to make up for the loss of this funding, the government has imposed repressive clawback taxes and rebates on the pharmaceutical industry.

In August 2017, we highlighted that Health Minister Andreas Xanthos had signed a decree to alter the distribution of clawback payments by pharmaceutical firms, which received widespread criticism from industry associations ( see ' Patented Drugmakers To Be Further Challenges By New Clawback Measures ' , August 7). This redistribution, which was made to create a 'fairer clawback system' and to 'eliminate inequalities', will place a greater burden on producers of high-value medicines (although not rare disease drug manufacturers) and will pose a downside risk to our already-negative outlook for the patented medicines sector.

Bleak Long-Term Outlook For Patented Drugs
Greece - Pharmacetical Market Forecast
f = BMI forecast. Source: National Organization for Medicines (EOF), Hellenic Association of Pharmaceutical Companies (SFEE), The Association of the European Self-Medication Industry (AESGP), BMI

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