Industry Trend Analysis - Hospital Reform Will Boost Long-Term Drugmaker Opportunities - JUNE 2017

BMI View: The Polish government is continuing to reform its healthcare system away from the poorly performing insurance model of the NFZ. The adoption of the Network of Hospitals will enable greater access to high quality of services, compounding our positive long-term view for the market.

The Polish Parliament (Sejm)'s adoption of the so-called 'Network of Hospitals' bill highlights the continued overhaul of the country's ailing healthcare system. We have previously highlighted the plans of the Ministry of Health to move from an insurance-based healthcare financing model to a UK-style tax-based system, which is aimed at increasing patient access to high-quality care ( see ' Healthcare Re form To Boost Medicine Sales ' , August 5 2016). The new bill continues this shift and will have long-term implications for both healthcare and pharmaceutical markets.

We forecast total healthcare expenditure to expand 6.7% to PLN129.5bn (USD31.0bn) in 2017, up from PLN121.4bn (USD30.8bn) in 2016. Over our five-year forecast period, healthcare spending is expected to grow at a local currency compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.3% (7.0% in US dollar terms), reaching PLN172.6bn (USD43.2bn) by 2021.

A Leading CEE Market
CEE: BMI's Innovative Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Index
Note: Scores out of 100; higher score = higher reward/lower risk. Source: BMI's Innovative Risk/Reward Index

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