Industry Trend Analysis - High Growth Potential Despite Differing Market-Specific Trends - JUNE 2017

BMI View: The pharmaceutical markets of Russia and Poland will remain the two key emerging markets of the CEE region over the coming years. While the markets have significant differences in terms of their regulatory trends and growth drivers, medicine sales in both countries are forecast to experience positive growth, with generic medicines driving market expansion.

The two largest and most important pharmaceutical markets in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region are Russia and Poland. They will maintain their positions as the leading CEE markets on account of their absolute market size as well as their underlying growth potential. However, we note that the trends driving medicine sales growth in these two countries are distinct and highlight the sub-regional diversity between EU member states and more eastern European, former soviet states.

Russia will remain the key CEE market over the coming years. While drugmaker sales have been hit by the country's economic recession brought on by falling oil prices through 2014-2016, the recent rebound in Brent crude prices has resulted in an improving outlook for the economy. These dynamics have been reported by major pharmaceutical firms in their quarterly financial results. The recovery of the Russian economy in 2017 will return its pharmaceutical market to a key international market ( see 'A Key Emerging Market Growth Driver In 2017', February 24). The fundamentals of Russia's healthcare market are positive for sustained growth in demand for medicines; namely a large, growing and ageing population, coupled with significant prevalence of chronic diseases ( see 'HIV And Cardiovascular Diseases Represent Significant Opportunities', December 1 2016).

Drugmaker Prospects To Follow Economic Recovery
Brent Crude Oil Price (LHS) & Russia's Economic Outlook (RHS)
f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI

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