Industry Trend Analysis - Healthcare Funding Issues To Create Drugmaker Challenges - MAR 2018

BMI View: Multinational pharmaceutical firms will face a number of challenges over the coming years in Hungary, repressing opportunities for growth and reducing market attractiveness. Significant healthcare funding issues remain prominent, leading to medicine shortages and growing waiting lists , while also placing pressure on pharmaceutical expenditure. Medicine sales growth will underperform almost all CEE markets over the coming years.

The near-term outlook for medicine sales in Hungary remains muted due to a range of factors principally driven by a lack of funding within the healthcare system. We forecast the country's pharmaceutical market to grow at 4.1% year-on-year in 2018 to HUF794bn (USD2.81), up from HUF763 (USD2.76bn). It remains one of the larger and more-developed markets in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region, however, growth opportunities are considerably below its regional peers.

Over our five-year forecast period (2017-2022), we anticipate the market to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6% in local currency terms and at 4.5% in US dollar terms. Aside from Greece, which continues to underperform almost all European pharmaceutical markets as it continues to sluggishly recover from the impact of the 2009 financial crisis ( see 'Limited Drugmaker Opportunities Despite Return To Growth', January 4 2018 '), all CEE markets will grow at a faster rate over this time period than Hungary.

Funding Issues To Restrict Market Growth
Select CEE Markets: 2017-2022 CAGR (loccur, %)
Source: BMI

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