Industry Trend Analysis - Health System Modernisation Project To Provide Drugmaker Opportunities - MAR 2017

BMI View: While Belarus has been highly successful at improving access to basic care over recent years given high levels of investment, there remain areas that require improvement. The World Bank's USD125mn loan for the implementation of the Health System Modernisation Project will significantly increase the quality of care and will focus heavily on non-communicable diseases. This will provide a boon for multinational generic pharmaceutical firms, particularly those with an interest in the cardiovascular diseases segment.

Belarus' healthcare system has benefitted greatly from significant investment in recent years, with considerable modernisations and improved provision of care under the country's Universal Healthcare System. However, despite improved maternal mortality and child immunisation rates (among others), there remains scope for better care. On November 18 2016, the World Bank approved a USD125mn loan to fund the country's Health System Modernisation Project which will run from 2017 to 2022 and will seek to address some of the current failings.

In early November we revised our forecast for Belarus' public healthcare expenditure on the back of the approved national budget for 2017. Although the budget called for an increase in public healthcare expenditure of 18.5% compared to 2016 spending, we noted the inconsistencies within the country's budgets and revised our spending forecast up to 15.0% to BYR3.88bn (USD1.88bn) for 2017. As a downside risk to this outlook, we highlighted that given the planned 9.0% increase in public sector wages, this surge in expenditure would not result in an immediate improvement of care. However we did note that the country's social focus will continue healthcare improvement, further expanding the coverage of its services. The World Bank-funded Modernisation Project highlights this long-term trend.

Greater Public Healthcare Spending
Healthcare Market Breakdown
f = BMI forecast. Source: World Health Organization (WHO), BMI

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