Industry Trend Analysis - Government Healthcare Focus To Boost Medicine Sales - MAR 2017

BMI View: Medicine sales in Turkey will be driven by the country's growing epidemiological profile, with significant growth in demand expected to come from chronic non-communicable diseases. Further bolstering this view is the Ministry of Health's focus on addressing these diseases as well as its heavy investment in healthcare infrastructure to increase access to services. However, while the market is set for robust growth in local currency terms, this will be undermined by the weakness of the lira.

The Turkish pharmaceutical market will experience robust growth over our forecast period, driven by the country's concerted effort to improve the health and wellbeing of its population. The government will implement this through the launch of the second phase of its Health Transformation Plan at the start of 2017. This phase will focus more heavily on increasing the accessibility of services as well as tackling the burden of non-communicable diseases.

We calculate that total pharmaceutical sales amounted to TRY23.0bn (USD7.67bn) in 2016, with this forecast to increase by 10.3% in local currency terms (-9.8% in US dollar terms) to TRY25.4bn (USD6.92bn) in 2017. Over our 2016-2021 forecast period, we anticipate the market to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.0% in local currency terms and by 1.0% in US dollar terms. While in local currency terms, market growth appears highly attractive to multinational pharmaceuticals firms, we warn that the continued depreciation of the lira against the dollar will temper this attractiveness.

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Source: National sources, BMI

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