Industry Trend Analysis - Government Debt Levels To Put Pressure On Pharmaceutical Sector In 2017 - MAY 2017


BMI View : SSN pharmaceutical expenditure will decline in 2017 , intensifying revenue pressures for drugmakers and pharmacies in Italy, as well as increasing out-of-pocket costs for the population. Italy's budget will come under greater scrutiny from the European Commission this year over its failure to tackle public debt. Italy's massive public debt load will continue to negatively impact the healthcare sector - particularly pharmaceutical spending, a large beneficiary of public funds.

Prescription drugmakers operating in Italy will continue to face revenue challenges as spending by the country's national healthcare service, Servizio Sanitario Nazionale (SSN), continues to be restricted. Aligning with our long-term view of a difficult operating environment for drugmakers in Italy, the prescription drugs sector will experience a five-year compound annual growth rate of 1.1% in local currency terms (-0.2% in US dollar terms), to EUR28.28bn (USD28.28bn) in 2021, up from EUR26.76bn (USD28.63bn) in 2016.

In 9M16, pharmaceutical expenditure by the SSN fell by 3.6% to EUR6.30bn (USD6.69bn). The number of prescriptions dispensed in the first nine months of 2016 decreased by 1.9% to 439mn over the 9M15 volume, equating to approximately 7.24 prescriptions (13.8 packs) per citizen. The decline in spending carries on from a 2015 fall in SSN spending - the seventh consecutive year in which SSN spending on drugs has declined.

High Debt Levels To Impact Pharmaceutical Spending
Italy: Government Debt
BMI/Eurostat

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