Industry Trend Analysis - Genomma To Increase Market Share Through Marzam Acquisition - SEPT 2014

BMI View: The outlook for the Qatari economy over the next 10 years is positive, particularly given the positive outlook on the hydrocarbon sector and our view that the country will continue recording substantial current account surpluses. Political risk is likely to remain low, as we do not see the al-Thani family losing its grip on power.

Endowed with enormous reserves of oil and natural gas, Qatar has promising prospects for growth over the coming 10 years. We see real GDP growth holding up strongly and are forecasting average annual expansion of 4.9% over the coming decade. While the government will continue to promote diversification, the foundation of this growth will remain the hydrocarbon sector. Qatar's relatively small population means that it will continue to record one of the highest per capita GDPs in the world, rising to approximately US$154,000 by 2023.

We now see oil production stagnating up to 2023, hovering around 1.70mn barrels per day (b/d) throughout the coming decade, with 1.27mn b/d available for export by 2023 (these figures include gas liquid production as well as crude oil). In the long term, the potential of Qatar's natural gas sector is far superior to that of its oil sector. According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Qatar has the 13th-largest proven oil reserves, but the third-largest reserves of natural gas in the world, behind Russia and Iran. In addition, at 2010 production levels, Qatar's proven oil reserves would last for around 50 years, but its proven natural gas reserves would last for around 215 years.

Weaker Headline Growth As Hydrocarbon Boom Ends
Qatar - Real GDP Growth, %

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