Industry Trend Analysis - Generic Drugmakers To Benefit From Regional Trends - SEPT 2017


BMI View : Driven by cost-containment measures and strengthening domestic manufacturing capabilities, opportunities for generic drugmakers in Jordan will increase over a multiyear horizon. The increasing popularity of branded generic products will also serve to bolster generic drug expenditure and we expect that the benefits of generic substitution in Jordan will be realised to a greater extent over the long term.

Jordan's plans to boost the local production of generic drugs will yield cost-saving benefits for the government and the subsector will make up an even greater proportion of prescription sales and overall pharmaceutical expenditure over the long term. Following an update of our historical data, our short- and long-term outlook for Jordan's pharmaceutical market remains unchanged, while our forecast figures for overall medicine expenditure have been marginally revised upwards.

We now calculate that total medicine spending in 2016 was JOD734mn (USD1.03bn), a slight increase from the previously calculated JOD722mn (USD1.02bn). Jordan's pharmaceutical market remains the 10th largest in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, below the regional average, albeit partly due to Jordan's small population size. We have moderately upgraded our pharmaceutical market growth forecast, anticipating an expansion at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.4% in local currency and US dollar terms between 2016 and 2021. By 2021, we forecast the market to be valued at JOD1.05bn (USD1.48bn), compared to JOD1.03bn (USD1.35bn) previously. We are now projecting that the market will expand by a 10-year CAGR of 7.6%, making the market worth JOD1.53bn (JOD2.15bn) by 2026, slightly upwards of the previous forecast of JOD1.48bn (USD2.09bn).

Growth Outlook Maintained
Jordan -Pharmaceutical Market Size (LHS) & Pharmaceutical Market Growth (RHS)
f = BMI forecast. Source: UN Comtrade , BMI

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