Industry Trend Analysis - Divergence Of Regional Drugmaker Opportunities - APR 2018

BMI View: Sub-Saharan Africa's pharmaceutical and healthcare markets will be shaped by a combination of trends over the coming years. To maximise the commercial opportunities, pharmaceutical companies will have to adopt a tailored approach to each market based on the relative level of development. Multinational interest will be skewed towards the larger markets of the region, which despite being high-risk markets provide a greater incentive given the more favourable rewards profile.

The large burden of diseases throughout Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) combined with a largely underdeveloped pharmaceutical market means there is great potential for growth and exploitation by foreign drugmakers in this region. An increase in public and private sector funding for domestic drugmakers will provide opportunities for local firms to expand their manufacturing capacities. Self-sufficiency remains a long-term target, however, as financial constraints and regulatory inefficiencies prevent a large scale pickup in local investment over the near-term.

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)'s USD12.3bn (EUR10.9bn) drug market is forecast to expand to USD15.3bn (EUR13.0bn) with a 7.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) at constant exchange rates (CER) through to 2022. The SSA region is made up of the sub-regions of West Africa, Southern Africa and East and Central Africa. The USD3.5bn (EUR3.1bn) East and Central African market will see significant growth, posting a 9.7% CAGR through to 2022. West Africa's USD3.5bn (EUR3.1bn) market will be another key driver of growth in the region, posting a 7.0% CAGR through to 2022, followed by Southern Africa's USD5.2bn (EUR4.6bn) drug market with a 6.2% CAGR over the same time period. SSA's pharmaceutical market will post a five-year CAGR of 4.4% in USD terms and 3.7% in EUR terms.

Strong Medicine Sales From Low Base
Sub-Saharan Africa Pharmaceutical Sales Forecast (USDbn)
f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI

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