Industry Trend Analysis - Cost-Effective Pricing And Generic Substitution Policies To Weigh On Drugmaker Revenues - MAR 2017

BMI View: Europe's pharmaceutical industry will remain a target for cost-containment over the coming year s as governments in the West continue to focus on reducing debts and governments in the East remain focussed on increasing healthcare access. Growth within the region ' s pharmaceutical market will be restricted as cost-effective pricing, rational prescribing of medicines and generic substitution become more prominent.

Structural Trends

The USD319bn (EUR288bn) European drug market is forecast to post a 2.7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through to 2020. The USD58bn (EUR52bn) Emerging Europe region will post a 7.6% CAGR through to 2020. In contrast, the USD261bn (EUR236bn) Western Europe region will post a 1.5% CAGR through to 2020. Growth forecasts are in local currency terms that are aggregated from the country-level US dollar proportions which have been equalised to minimise currency fluctuations using a time series-weighted calculation. Europe's pharmaceutical market will post a five-year CAGR of 0.5% in USD terms and 2.6% CAGR in EUR terms.

Growth Facing Headwinds
Western & Emerging Europe - Pharmaceuticals Sales
f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI

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