Economic Downgrade Leads To Moderate Healthcare Revisions

BMI View: Following the BMI Country Risk team's downgrade to Turkey's 2012 macroeconomic projections, BMI's Pharmaceutical and Healthcare team have moderately revised the growth expectations for the leading indicators: pharmaceuticals, healthcare and medical devices. Due to continued high consumer price inflation, our 2012 growth rates in nominal terms have not been overly affected, but they will look weaker in real terms. The expectation that lira weakness will continue in the medium term means our five-year moderate nominal growth rates in lira now look considerably weaker in US dollar terms, particularly compared to the widely held 2010 view that the lira would strengthen in the long-term.

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